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Vorstellung der Masterarbeit: Variability of Tsunami Inundation and Wave Heights due to Different Source Models: Scenariobased Numerical Modelling at the Central Coast of Peru, Lima
07.02.2017, 09:00 - 10:00
Seminarraum GPI (Gebäude 6.42)

Tsunamis generated by megathrust events, in coastal areas have a huge destructive force. Recent catastrophic events, such as the 2004 tsunami of Sumatra, Indonesia, or the tsunami generated by the Tohoku earthquake of 2011, are a tragic reminder of the possible damage caused by these waves.
The Pacific Coast of South America is a highly active seismic zone. Chile regularly suffers from earthquakes and resulting tsunamis, e.g. in February 2010. Since the disastrous event of 1746 off the coast of Lima, there is no record of a comparable event in Peru and consequently the country has enjoyed a seismic gap of about 250 years. The constant increase of stress at the plate boundaries could lead to big events in the case of release.
In order to get a better understanding of potential events in the future, different investigation approaches have to be compared and evaluated. Past studies explain the importance of accurate tsunami hazard assessments. More than 65 % of the fatalities during the 2011 earthquake and following tsunami in Japan were caused outside of the designated inundation zones. Single scenarios may be a first indicator for hazard preparation and evacuation planning, but do not take into account the huge uncertainties. In case of Callao region, two scenarios with Mw = 8.5 and Mw = 9.0 have been calculated. The idea of this study is to evaluate the variability due to different source models and to compare the existing inundation charts.
Andreas Schäfer (KIT) is developing a new numerical Finite-Difference-Modelling software called TsuPy to calculate wave propagation and inundation caused by tsunamis. Parallel computing allows the usage of smaller, and therefore more realistic, grid sizes without significantly increasing the computation time. It is worth mentioning, that the parallel modelling of TsuPy is GPU based and much faster than conventional CPU based mechanisms. In this study a total of 500 scenarios were calculated. The results show the expected effect of variation in wave heights and inundation areas. For extreme events the inundation area even reaches the safe zones of local evacuation maps.
This thesis was realized in cooperation between the Civil Engineering Department at the Pontifical Catholic University of Peru (PUCP) and the Geophysical Institute of the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT).

Robert Eschbach
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